: The next catalyst for Tesla’s stock is around the corner

Tesla Inc. is slated to report second-quarter sales and production in the next few days, with the stock struggling to keep its momentum going after an epic run earlier this month.


was the first U.S. auto maker to eschew monthly sales updates, opting instead to provide quarterly data on its deliveries, a proxy for sales, and production very shortly after quarter-end, including weekends. General Motors Co.

followed that move a couple of years ago.

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Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report the sale of 445,000 EVs in the second quarter, with the vast majority, or about 434,000, sales of Model 3 sedans and Model Y compact SUVs.

Late Thursday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said he expected Tesla to report sales of 438,000 vehicles, saying that his prediction was based on checks, regionally reported data, and app-download data.

“Total global app downloads … continue to trend higher and are a good indicator for increasing sales,” Narayan said. “Production and sales data in China appears to be improving but monthly domestic sales remain choppy, making deliveries difficult to predict.”

Sales in Europe “appear to be following normal quarterly delivery trends while app download data supports robust deliveries in June,” the analyst said.

Demand “is responding favorably to price cuts earlier this year and [Tesla] is on track to achieve their [1.8 million] vehicle sales target for the year,” Narayan said.

Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner raised his second-quarter delivery expectations to 448,000, from 438,000, on optimism about momentum in China.

Tesla in April reported first-quarter deliveries slightly below FactSet consensus, which prompted some analysts to worry that more price cuts might be ahead.

The EV maker has tweaked EV prices, mostly down, several times this year, as competition heats up in the EV market and as auto makers make adjustments so more of its vehicles qualify for EV credits in the Inflation Reduction Act.

Read more: Tesla Model 3s now qualify for $7,500 in federal tax credits

The credits hinge on factors including final assembly location, battery component and minerals sourcing, and the EV buyer’s income.

Tesla’s stock earlier this month hit a record 13-session win streak, breaking a previous all-time run of 11 consecutive gains set in January 2021.

The stock has gained 108% so far this year, compared with an advance of about 14% for the S&P 500 index.


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